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科学家想要在太空中放置一个巨大的镜子在地球之上。它应该有60英里宽。用来捕捉太阳发出的光线。它会用来改变太阳照在地球上的光线，就像小孩用手镜在墙上制造光彩。
为什么他们要这样做？太阳光在许多方面都有很有用的作用。它能在夜里照亮城市。温暖的光线可以阻止可能到来的霜冻使农作物结出果实。它可以融化海洋里危险的冰山。它也许还能改变云朵的运动，给需要的地方带来雨水

decisions under risk
风险决策
There is usually little assurance that predicted futures will coincide with actual futures. The
没有什么能担保预期的未来和实际的未来相一致。
physical and economic elements on which a course of action depends may vary from their
人类一系列行动所依赖的自然和经济要素，由于某些巧合因素，可能与它们的预期值有所出入，
estimated values because of chance causes. Not only are the estimates of future costs
不仅对未来的预期成本错综复杂，
problematical but ,in addition, the anticipated future worth of most ventures is known only with
而且，大部分风险投资的未来预期价值也只是通过保险额度获知。
a degree of assurance. This lack of certainty about the future makes decision making one of
对未来的确定性的匮乏使得决策制定成为对个体，行业，政府而言最具
the most challenging tasks faced by individuals ,industry ,and government.
挑战性的任务之一
Decision making under risk occurs when he decision maker does not suppress
当决策制定者意识到(承认)对未来的认知并不完整，相应的风险存在，
acknowledged ignorance about the future but makes it explicit through the assignment of
风险决策制定就会有其用武之地。
probabilities ,such probabilities may be based on experimental evidence , expert opinion
通过基于实验证据，专家观点，主观判断或者以上组合的方式给出的可能性评估，来帮助决策制定者制定详尽完善的决策。
,subjective judgment ,or a combination of these.
Consider the following example. A computer systems firm has the opportunity to bid on two
考虑下面列子。一个计算机系统公司有机会参与两个
related contracts being advertised by a municipality. The first pertains to the selection and
受到当地政府推广关联商业合同的投标。第一份合同涉及
installation of hardware for a central computing facility together with required software. The
一个中心计算设备的硬件的选型和安装及相关软件的处理。第二份合同
second involves the development of a distributed computing network involving the selection
包含一个分布式计算网络的研发，当中同样涉及相关硬件和软件的选型和安装。
and installation of hardware and software. The firm may be awarded either contract C1 or
该公司可能拿到两个合同当中的一个，或者拿到全部的合同，因此，存在三种可能的结局。
contract C2, or both contract C1 and C2. Thus, there are three possible futures.
Careful consideration of the possible approaches leads to the identification of five
经过对可能的处理方式的仔细考虑后，产生五种选择以待决策。
alternatives. The first is for the firm to subcontract the hardware selection and installation, but
对于该公司，第一种选择是将硬件选型和安装转包给其他公司，自己研发其中的软件部分；
to develop the software itself. The second is for the firm to subcontract the software
第二种选择是将软件研发部分转包给其他公司，
development, but to select and install the hardware itself. The third is for the firm to handle
自己负责硬件的选型和安装工作；第三种选择是自己公司处理全部的硬件和软件业务；
both the hardware and software tasks itself. The fourth is for the firm to bid jointly with a
第四种选择是联合一家其他公司来竞投标全部的硬件和软件项目；
partner firm on both the hardware and software projects. The fifth alternative is for the firm to
第五种选择是将硬件和软件业务全部转包给其他公司，
serve only as project manager, subcontracting all hardware and software tasks.
自己担当项目经理人的角色。
With the possible futures and various alternatives identified, the next step is to determine
在对未来可能的选择和不同选择的罗列和甄别之后，接下来便是确定收益值
payoff values.

I am a nurse, Nurse is a team for helping the wounded and saving the dying,we relief people from suffering of sickness and serve people with our heart and soul.I like the career of nurse very much.
Although being a nurse have rare holiday and rest, and it often makes me feel hard,tired and in a mess. I still fond of my business.
一楼机器翻译，可忽略。

I am a nurse. I love my nursing career. I love it because they help heal the wounded and rescue the dying, they bring relief to people from their sufferings, and they serve the people whole-heartedly. I am well aware that being a nurse means no regular holidays, that the job is hard, tough, sometimes painstaking, dirty and weary. But I love my profession despite of all these.

I am a nurse. Often I work long hours, through holidays, with very little time-off. The work is difficult, filthy, and tiring. But I love my job dearly because it is a profession to relieve the sufferings of many people.

I'm a nurse and I like my career very much.The nurse team always heal the wounded and rescue the dying ,remove the pain for the masses and serve the people wholeheartedly. Though the nurse's work can't enjoy the holidays and is so hard,dirty and tired,I like it very much.

I am a nurse, I like nurse the specialty, because nurse the specialty is a saving from impending death assisting the wounded, for the populace kill pain, wholeheartedly the troop which serves for the people, although nurse works the inarticulate holiday rest, is also laborious, also dirty, is also tired, but I like my specialty.

I am a nurse, loving my career as it will help people a lot. Specifically, nurses care for the sick and those that are suffering from diseases. Nurses are so whole hearted in providing services for people. Thus, I love this career, even though there are not so many holidays, even though it is hard and tired.

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